A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, health services, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
